Aptera Motors is currently raising at a pre-money valuation of $200 million. Even for a hardware technology company, this is massively overvalued. Aptera has yet to generate any revenue, which makes this valuation impossible to justify.

The electric vehicle market is one of the fastest-growing subsectors of the vehicle market. However, the precise size is up for debate. One source pegs the electric vehicle industry at around $44 billion in 2021. It predicts the market will continue growing at a rate of 33.6% per annum, climbing to $2.5 trillion by 2027. At that point, there would be an estimated 233.9 million units on the road. 

Other sources estimate the industry to be smaller but still growing rapidly. GlobeNewswire estimates that the global market for electric vehicles was worth $140 billion in 2019. It estimates an annualized growth rate of 22% that will take the industry to $700 billion by 2026. In the North American market specifically, the industry is estimated to be worth about $12.8 billion, a fraction of the global share. However, it should grow at a rate of 37.2% per annum, climbing to $117 billion by 2028.

Aptera Motors has three founders, two of whom are co-CEOs: CEO Steve Fambro, CEO Chris Anthony and co-founder Michael Johnson. Investors should note that Fambro and Anthony first founded Aptera in 2006 and served as chief executives until about 2010, but failed to get the financial support they needed to keep the company alive. In 2008, The Department of Energy (DOE) rejected Aptera’s application for the Advanced Technology Vehicles Manufacturing (ATVM) loan program — the same program that awarded Tesla millions of dollars in funding. In 2011, Aptera shifted its focus from a three-wheeled electric vehicle to build a four-door electric sedan that it thought had a better chance of winning DOE approval. The DOE issued a conditional commitment letter to loan $150 million to Aptera if the company raised $80 million privately. But investors were spooked by similar automotive startups getting rejected by the DOE. So the company folded at the end of 2011 and sold off all its assets. Anthony and Fambro resurrected Aptera in 2019 with a new focus on solar electric power and efficiency.

After Aptera’s shutdown, Fambro founded Famgro LLC and served as its CEO until 2015. From 2015 to 2017, Fambro was a venture partner and COO of the agricultural technology group at Ocean Holding. At Ocean Holding, he focused on building the first USDA organic vertical farm in the United Arab Emirates. He also worked on developing export markets for produce in both Hong Kong and Singapore. From 2017 to 2020, Fambro worked at Flux Power, an advanced energy storage technology company. 

Prior to Aptera’s relaunch in 2019, Anthony was the founder and chairman of Flux Power. Before that, he was the founder and research and development advisor for Epic Boats. 

Johnson founded Flux Power and still serves on its board of directors today. Previously, he also served as the founder and CEO of Esenjay Petroleum Corp.

Investors should also note that Flux Power has since gone public and is listed on the Nasdaq under the ticker symbol FLUX. This is a massive accomplishment that demonstrates that all three co-founders have impressive entrepreneurial expertise. Flux’s focus on lithium-ion energy storage solutions for trucks and other equipment also contributes to the industry expertise of the founders. According to LinkedIn, Aptera has 47 total employees, including finance and marketing professionals that fill out the key team.

Aptera is not the only three-wheeled electric vehicle on the market. The Electra Meccanica SOLO and Daymak Spiritus are both competitors. Aptera has two main differentiators. First is its “never charge” solar package, which allows for more than 40 miles of travel before the vehicle requires a charge. Second is the company’s claim that its vehicle can travel up to 1,000 miles by relying on its battery. The 1,000 mile range is drastically higher than other electric vehicles on the market (including Tesla models), which can range from 125 miles to about 350 miles. The solar panels enable the Aptera vehicle to continue charging without needing to be plugged in, though plugging it in is an option. The company also claims that its vehicle can recharge within 10 minutes, compared to the typical electric car, which requires closer to an hour of charging time. In this regard, the product is highly differentiated from its current competition. At this point, the product is not being commercialized and therefore no customer reviews are available.

Aptera Motors did not generate any revenue in 2019 or 2020. However, it did generate significant net losses — $224,487 in 2019 and $4.2 million in 2020. Operating cash outflows were $206,907 in 2019 and $3 million in 2020. The company also has $1.6 million in the form of SAFEs and deposits totaling $452,070. 

Management expects to ship out the first vehicles in 2022. The goal then is to increase production to around 10,000 units per year by the end of 2022. This is an ambitious target, and the results remain to be seen. The Aptera vehicle is currently in the beta phase of development, so it has yet to complete safety tests. Still, Aptera claims to have more than 10,000 preorders lined up to date representing $350 million in gross revenues.

Aptera Motors has yet to generate any revenue, and it is continuously losing cash. It is unclear precisely how well its technology will work and whether it will be deemed safe by regulators. Investors should also note that the automotive industry is notorious for low profit margins. Even if Aptera does manage to commercialize its vehicle, it could be a long time before it achieves profitability or positive cash flow. Add in the fact that it will likely require additional funding as it gets closer to launching its product, and investors buying in today might end up diluted. Finally, at a $200 million pre-money valuation, the company is massively overvalued for having no commercialized product.

Aptera Motors’ technology could prove to be immensely popular. If so, the company could help usher in widespread adoption of solar-powered electric vehicles. The company is heavily differentiated in its use of solar charging. The team running the company also appears to be highly qualified, as all three co-founders appear to have been involved in the IPO of Flux Power, a lithium ion energy storage company that is now listed on the Nasdaq. The market in which the company operates, while highly competitive, is growing at a rapid pace with conservative growth rates of at least 20% year over year.

Aptera Motors is building solar electric vehicles with a focus on efficiency. If the company’s technology works as claimed, it would expand traveling range and cut costs — two massive limitations of existing electric vehicles. The company has yet to commercialize its product but claims it has more than 10,000 vehicles reserved amounting to approximately $350 million in gross revenues.

Aptera Motors has plenty of challenges to overcome if it is to succeed. First, the company has yet to generate any revenue. And since the automotive industry is known for low profit margins, it could take a long time for Aptera to reach profitability. In addition, Aptera’s vehicles have yet to undergo safety testing, and the results could have an impact on the company’s chances of success. Finally, the market is crowded and includes large incumbents with hybrid and electric offerings like Honda and Tesla, as well as other three-wheeled electric vehicles like the Daymak Spiritus and Electra Meccanica SOLO. 

Apera Motors also has the potential to become popular among those looking to buy an environmentally conscious vehicle. The company appears to have generated significant interest with its 10,000-plus reservations (though how binding these reservations are remains unclear). Finally, co-founders Steve Fambro, Chris Anthony and Michael Johnson appear to have been involved in the IPO of Flux Power, a lithium ion energy storage company that is now listed on the Nasdaq. The team has no shortage of industry or entrepreneurial expertise. Overall, our team has rated the company as a Neutral prospect at this time.

For questions regarding the KingsCrowd staff pick or ratings for this company, please reach out to support@kingscrowd.com. 

Analysis written by Daniel Jones.