Ashley Black Experience (ABE) is raising capital via a convertible note at a $50 million valuation. This price is reasonable given ABE’s impressive revenue traction and significant brand assets. The company generated more than $15 million in revenue in 2021 and projects bringing in more than $26 million for 2022. If that projection is accurate, this price represents a very attractive 2x revenue-to-valuation multiple. From a price standpoint, investors are getting a fair deal for a stake in this well-established enterprise.

Ashley Black Experience (ABE)’s market prospects aren’t particularly promising because the company sells to consumers who aren’t strictly in need of this product. The FasciaBlaster isn’t a clinically validated solution for chronic pain, so ABE isn’t playing within the actual healthcare industry. The most obvious use case for the FasciaBlaster and associated products is cellulite reduction, and the market for that is small at less than $1.3 billion as of 2018. The market is expected to grow at a sizable 11% compound annual growth rate, but even a solid growth rate can’t overcome a market that’s small to begin with. 

Ashley Black has generated more than $120 million by successfully marketing a seemingly miraculous impulse purchase to women. However, this company isn’t growing within an established market. There’s a good chance that ABE’s sales could plateau in coming years. 

Ashley Black is the founder and CEO of Ashley Black Experience (ABE). Black’s drive to found ABE was rooted in her personal experience. After navigating juvenile arthritis and a nearly deadly infection in her 20s, Black was obsessed with discovering ways to make her body feel better. She began investigating the science behind fascia, and she developed a massage method that helped regenerate that connective tissue. Over time, chance introductions to sports stars and celebrities helped validate this method, which turned into a product for users to administer their own fascia massages. 

Black doesn’t have a specific healthcare or scientific background, and she hadn’t run a business before launching the massage centers that were the foundations of ABE. However, she has built a remarkable personal brand over the last 20 years, with a number of celebrity connections, frequent talk show appearances, and even a bestselling book on blasting cellulite. Black’s compelling personal brand is a big reason why ABE is so valuable. Beyond Black, the company doesn’t seem to employ any other team members that offer a significant advantage. As such, ABE doesn’t seem to have the necessary team to grow it into a company that can yield returns for investors.

It’s difficult to say how Ashley Black Experience’s products – namely the FasciaBlaster line – compares to competitors because they occupy a rather unique category. The closest comparison is probably muscle rollers and other massaging products. Compared to those, the FasciaBlasters are supposedly engineered to more specifically target fascia for pain and cellulite reduction. However, it’s not clear that they accomplish that job much more effectively than other products, and they’re much more expensive than alternatives found at mainstream stores ($331.50 for the beginner’s kit of FasciaBlasters). 

It’s also worth noting that buzzy new technology like Therabody’s Theraguns and other powered massagers are arguably in competition with FasciaBlasters. Those tools are marketed more toward serious athletes and others in need of a deep tissue massage, while the FasciaBlaster brand is mostly focused on women looking to reduce cellulite. For that purpose, FasciaBlasters seem to be better suited. However, the cellulite reduction market is much more niche than the market for serious massage solutions, and it is constantly inundated with new products claiming to achieve a quick fix. Consumers might not be able to differentiate FasciaBlasters from any other Instagram-famous product for cellulite reduction that crosses their social media feeds.

Ashley Black Experience (ABE) has generated impressive results. The company has been around for about 10 years, at least in its current incarnation. (Ashley Black previously ran massage clinics and provided other services, but that seems to have been a separate enterprise.) In the last decade, ABE has brought in more than $120 million in lifetime revenue, which is hugely impressive for a self-run business selling products to consumers. Its 2021 revenues topped $15 million, and ABE projects bringing in $26 million in 2022. What’s more, ABE is profitable. The company brought in an impressive net profit of more than $3 million in 2020. That profit declined to roughly $450,000 in 2021 – apparently due to supply chain changes – but the company remains in the black and intends to stay that way. 

Beyond pure financials, Ashley Black has built a seemingly thriving business with a wide presence online, a huge number of positive testimonials (accompanied by photos of cellulite reduction), and a wide range of celebrity endorsements and pop culture mentions. The FasciaBlaster was mentioned on Keeping Up with the Kardashians, for example. The founder has also written a popular book that accompanies the products. Ashley Black has done an admirable job of keeping her brand relevant over several years, generating new customers all the while. 

Ashley Black Experience (ABE) is a medium-risk investment opportunity. On the one hand, ABE is very well established, with more than $120 million in lifetime revenue and strong brand awareness. However, there are operational factors that could give prospective investors pause. For one, ABE is carrying a great deal of debt on its balance sheet, with a total of more than $6 million in accounts payable, borrowings, and more as of 2021. In addition, ABE seems to rely solely on the brand efforts and executional drive of its founder Ashley Black. If she were somehow unable to continue being the face of the business, the company would likely suffer. 

Ashley Black Experience (ABE) is an incredible success story of a woman transforming her personal struggles into a massively popular enterprise. However, that doesn’t mean it’s an enticing investment opportunity. Ashley Black scaled her business by taking on a great deal of debt, which is still burdening the balance sheet. While the company is profitable, profits have decreased in recent years, as ABE faced supply chain issues and other operational struggles. 

The most important question for investors to be asking is whether ABE has the potential to continue growing at the pace it has achieved thus far. Unfortunately, there’s no strong evidence to indicate that it does. Thousands of women have purchased a FasciaBlaster, and that pool of consumers may now be saturated. ABE seems like more of a one-hit wonder than a brand that creates sustainable, lucrative customer loyalty over time. If investors could have bought in five years ago, they arguably should have. These days, it’s less clear that an investment will generate a strong return. 

Ashley Black has single-handedly developed a method, product, and entire brand around a proprietary method of tissue massage. That hustle has led her to sell more than $120 million worth of products (which is an incredible result) and earn press and mentions that draw millions of eyeballs, like a segment on Keeping Up with the Kardashians. Black’s business and brand are primed for the Instagram and TikTok era, when consumers appear more willing than ever to learn about new products from a trusted spokesperson and make an impulse buy. 

Moreover, Ashley Black Experience (ABE) isn’t finished innovating. The company’s future plans include creating a network of certified massage therapists and other service providers who can be disciples of the Ashley Black method out in the wild. This initiative could open up new revenue streams for ABE and build new cohorts of interested buyers. If Ashley Black can take her business to the next level by paying down debt, expanding her team, and diversifying revenue opportunities, ABE could continue to scale.

Ashley Black Experience is a multifaceted brand built around the concept of fascia massage. Founder Ashley Black is an enthusiastic and knowledgeable spokesperson for this method of pain and cellulite reduction. Thanks to years of press, TV show appearances, celebrity endorsements, and a barrage of digital marketing, the company has brought in a remarkable $120 million in lifetime revenue. It is currently profitable, with plans to diversify revenue away from basic product sales. Finally, the current valuation is a good deal for investors.

On the other hand, Ashley Black Experience may be hitting a plateau. The company is serving a very niche market and may have already saturated its pool of potential buyers. It’s not clear whether Ashley Black will be able to sustain her cellulite-blasting brand as consumers are continually inundated with new “miracle products” intended to achieve the same goals. Plus, prospective investors might shy away from heavy debts on the balance sheet. Therefore, Ashley Black Experience has been rated a Neutral Deal. 

For questions regarding the KingsCrowd analyst report or ratings for this company, please reach out to support@kingscrowd.com. 

Analysis written on April 14, 2022.