With a $4.8 million annual run rate (as of April 2023), Blackbird Foods is undervalued at a $7 million valuation cap. Even comparing the valuation cap to the $2.8 million in revenue from last year published in the Form C, a $7 million valuation cap is very reasonable. Compared to the online private markets as a whole — accounting for either annual revenue number — Blackbird Foods is undervalued, making for a high price score.

The U.S. plant-based meat market stood at around $1.3 billion last year and is expected to grow at an annual rate of 23.9%. Though the market is small and global expansion only doubles the market to $4.4 billion, demand for plant-based meat alternatives is skyrocketing. A few key factors are driving the market. For one, Americans are becoming increasingly aware of the health benefits associated with cutting or reducing meat intake, not to mention the environmental impact of meat consumption. Meat substitutes also have a longer shelf life on average, reducing food waste. Finally, the pandemic had massive effects on the supply chain. The average consumer today is likely more willing to try alternatives to popular products that may be less available. 

Blackbird Foods is led by Emanuel Storch and Mike Pease. Emanuel was on the Simply Gum founding team in an operational role prior to founding Blackbird. He is a relatively green founder, with only seven years of professional experience post graduation. That said, his experience is ideal as he comes to Blackbird with time at a consumer goods company in the food and beverage sector. 

Mike has a restaurant background and has been in the plant-based food space for more than two decades. He owned Terri, a vegan restaurant in New York, for 10 years before joining NuLeaf Restaurants as the head of operations. These two founders have ideal complementary experience for a consumer goods company targeting both the retail consumer and professional chefs. They know how to sell in these verticals because they have firsthand experience.

Blackbird Foods competes with two types of offerings: conventional animal-based products and plant-based meat substitutes. On the retail side, there are a number of frozen pizza companies that are both traditional (non-vegan) and vegan. Many vegan offerings are also gluten-free. Blackbird uses traditional pizza crust as opposed to the gluten-free cauliflower crust many vegan pizzas use. By sticking with gluten in the crust, Blackbird provides an option for customers who want to avoid meat but are not gluten-free. There are a few others that have this combination — like Tattooed Chef, available at Target.

There are far fewer competitors in the plant-based seitan and chicken wing space. Tyson and Impossible Foods make vegan chicken nuggets, but there are far fewer options when it comes to wings. Blackbird is in line with the others when it comes to price, and the company does not claim to differentiate in this way. The products available directly from the Blackbird site are sold in bulk and not for a strong discount. 

Quality differentiation in food and beverage will always be up to the individual preferences of the consumer, but Blackbird prides itself on providing top quality, restaurant-level offerings. Overall, the comprehensiveness of the product line and lack of competition in some verticals is what will likely drive Blackbird’s success over its competition.

Blackbird Foods has a revenue run rate of $4.8 million (as of April 2023). Last year, the company grossed $2.8 million. The team has raised just over $3 million to date and is backed primarily by Lever VC, in addition to a dozen smaller funds and angel investors. With $900,000 between cash on hand and additional financing commitments — and a burn rate of $60,000 to $80,000 per month — the company has decent financial footing. 

Blackbird’s restaurant presence is mainly in the Northeastern U.S. With a strong presence in the region, the team plans to replicate the model and expand across the U.S. in the near future. Currently, the retail offerings are available in Sprouts and Whole Foods across the nation, as well as 300 Target stores. There is still plenty of room for retail growth, but this is a very strong start. 

The U.S. plant-based meat market is very small compared to most other food sectors. The strong growth rate is promising, but it will take years for the market to grow to just $10 billion, as mainstream customer adoption is a big hurdle. Blackbird’s wide product offering also invites competition. In the pizza space, the company competes with hundreds of vegan, gluten-free, and traditional options. Seitan is far less popular, but the lack of competition is likely reflective of lower demand. Finally, it should be noted that the increased financial risk rating produced by the KingsCrowd algorithm is the result of $2.5 million in long-term debt, which the team has reported to be convertible notes. 

With a revenue run rate of $4.8 million, Blackbird is undervalued at $7 million. The company has consistently grown revenue year over year, which is reflective of the founders’ ability to execute. The founding team has a complementary background in consumer goods and the restaurant space that’s ideal for the verticals they’re selling to. The team is off to an impressive start retailing in Sprouts, Whole Foods, and Target, but there is still plenty of room to expand both in retailers and in restaurants outside of the Northeastern U.S. Presence in an additional 300 Target stores this year will drive the company’s already consistent revenue growth. 

Finally, the market, though small, is growing at a staggering rate of 23.9% annually. Consumer trends like environmental and health consciousness will continue to drive consumer adoption of meat alternatives.