Genius Juice is raising at a $14 million valuation with a 20% discount. This valuation is a significant lift over its $6 million valuation at the time of its previous raise on WeFunder last year. While the company has seen significant performance increases in that time and investors could still see significant returns investing at this stage, this is still a remarkably high valuation for this early stage startup. Despite the attractive discount rate, Genius Juice’s price score is its lowest across all five metrics.

Coconut water holds a surprisingly large share of the market for a single nutritional product. It is expected to grow to $11.2 billion by 2026 at a 16.8% CAGR (the market was valued at $4.27 billion in 2019). 

Genius Juice is also marketing itself as an alternative to traditional smoothies, a much larger market altogether. This market is valued at $20.3 billion this year. It could rise at a CAGR of 7.7% to reach a size of $34.2 billion by 2027, largely fueled by millennials.

Fierce competition from trendy competitors is likely to limit Genius Juice’s access to new consumers. However this slice of the market is still developing, so no one brand is dominant yet. With a proven healthy and tasty product as well as a potent marketing apparatus, Genius Juice could obtain a large share of a decently-sized market. Balancing the market’s strong growth against the likelihood of competition, Genius Juice scored only slightly above average in the market metric.

At its current development stage, Genius Juice is supported by a relatively large team. Alex Bayer, Genius Juice’s founder and CEO, has led the company to its impressive early success. Prior to founding Genius Juice in 2014, Bayer spent several months as the Director of Marketing for VirginRaw Foods — a similarly nutrition-focused brand. At VirginRaw, he worked with the owners to successfully re-brand the company and managed its mass scale marketing. This experience led to Genius Juice’s successful appearance on Shark Tank this year, increasing deals with distributors and generating positive media coverage.

Ramon and Amanda Canek, co-founders of Canek Consultants, serve as Genius Juice’s COO and Director of Operations, respectively. Ramon is also contracted with Nestlé, a company that makes similar but less health-oriented products. He also spent more than a decade as a vice president with GT’s Living Foods, which sells kombucha and coconut yogurt. Ramon brings expert knowledge on certification of products as organic, non-GMO, kosher, and so on. Amanda has several years of project management experience with both food-based companies and non-food related firms. She is working concurrently with Califa Farms — which sells plant milk products.

Finally, Gavin Linde serves as Sales Director, and Clint Melchor serves as the LA Territory Sales Manager. Linde brings several years of sales management experience, including a stint as a Sales VP for Vuka Energy Drinks. Melchor has similar experience working with several beverage-oriented companies, including more than two years working with Zola Fruits of the World, which sells coconut water. Overall, the team isn’t lacking in relevant industry experience, though none of them are long-time industry veterans. Any exit would be a first for each of them as none have past entrepreneurial experience. Thus, Genius Juice’s team score is middle of the road.

Genius Juice’s main claim to fame is its unique “whole coconut” approach. By including both coconut water and meat (and recycling the husk), the company can claim to be using the whole coconut in its manufacturing. This practice reduces waste and will endear it to younger, environmentally conscious consumers which are already the most likely customers for Genius Juice. Simultaneously, the not-quite-coconut-water, not-quite-smoothie offers the company access to two different markets, and its products boast health benefits that consumers may not be able to get holistically elsewhere. 

That said, Genius Juice operates in a space that is already competitive. There’s nothing to stop a potential rival from attempting to imitate its winning formula. Its greatest asset is its ongoing success in messaging and distributing, with more than 2,800 stores such as CostCo and Whole Foods selling Genius Juice products. As the company currently exhibits a unique product and strong distribution, the differentiators score for Genius Juice is strong.

Thanks to successful media outreach and contracts with distributors, Genius Juice’s revenues are growing startlingly fast, though it has yet to become profitable. Numbers for 2020 are not available. However, the company claims to be on track for $2 million in revenue. That would be a 242% year-over-year increase from $635,874 in revenue in 2019 — itself a huge lift over $327,699 in 2018. This year-over-year increase in revenue is a very good sign, though it has come at considerable cost. The company held more than $1 million dollars in long-term debt as of 2019 and almost $750 million in short-term debt.

However, the company’s outreach does appear to be working. Its projections of $12 million in revenue by the end of 2021 — while ambitious — do not seem unreasonable. Due to this impressive revenue growth, Genius Juice’s performance score is very high.

Food banks are currently reporting “skyrocketing” levels of food assistance needed by Americans. This suggests that families in dire straits may not have the financial freedom to invest in healthier food options. At the same time, Americans are saving in record amounts and reducing spending. These trends may continue even as the economy recovers from its ongoing recession.

While $4-5 per bottle may not seem like a huge price tag, it adds up for Americans concerned about saving every dollar when visiting grocery stores. Depending on how consumer perspectives shift as the economy recovers, Genius Juice may struggle to gain further traction with consumers. The company has shown admirable revenue growth in recent years, but it needs to keep that trend going all the way to its projected exit, several years down the line.

In the short term, the company needs to be able to scale up to reach profitability, while ensuring its product remains high quality. Especially as a health-conscious brand, this is of vital concern. If product quality declines as distribution scales up, Genius Juice products will lose what separates them from the rest of the market and become just another pseudo-healthy drink option. If that happens, the company could soon find itself running up the limit of the market size possible for it.

If the best way to predict future results is to examine past success, then Genius Juice is on an excellent path. Even in the midst of the pandemic recession, revenues are going up and distributors are signing on. If investors choose to join in on this raise, it may be their last opportunity to do so with significant, perhaps tenfold, returns — even with the company’s high valuation. In a growing industry, grabbing hold of a growing market share is key, and Genius Juice is doing it. 

Genius Juice produces unique, “whole coconut” beverages by combining the water and meat products of coconuts, specially grown in Thailand. This blend is bottled and sold as a plant-based health drink and meal replacement, serving as an alternative to coconut waters and juice smoothies. The company sells to individual consumers online, as well as through distributors across the United States. 

While product revenues have yet to exceed operating costs, Genius Juice is getting close and could see profits as early as next year. With the results of this raise, Genius Juice plans to expand its offerings, broaden distributors, and set itself up for an acquisition a few years down the line. Thanks to successful marketing and consistently high ratings of its product, the company appears primed to do so. Therefore, Genius Juice is a Deal to Watch.

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Analysis written by Benjamin Potts.