Pav*r is seeking to raise between $50,000 and $300,000 through a convertible note with an 8% annual interest rate. These notes will convert at the next round of funding subject to a 20% discount to the firm’s future value and subject to a $2.5 million pre-money valuation. In all, the pricing for the company — given its very early stage — seems appropriate. This has led our scoring system to rank Pav*r high on Price since the amount of ownership up for grabs for investors is significant relative to every dollar they invest.

In its filings, the management team at Pav*r indicated that the company’s market potential could be worth around $96 billion by 2025. They define the market as the “business and productivity app market.” This is a rather broad market. While this may be an appropriate space to compare the company’s potential to, it only applies if you believe they will be successful in bringing other productivity solutions to market. This is likely to happen if the firm succeeds with its flagship product. But it might be better to zoom in on their core opportunity at this time. 

A different way to look at the market is to assume that the possible maximum size of it would be the sum of all Google account holders. As stated, this is about 1.2 billion people globally. At the low end, this would imply an annual revenue opportunity for the company of $46.08 billion. At the end high, this would total about $72 billion. Of course, the overwhelming majority of Google account holders are unlikely to sign up for the service. But this does give an illustration of the size of the space management can target. Expansion into other calendars could increase the market potential as well. With such a massive market, however, comes struggles. Obtaining market dominance is very unlikely. Furthermore, moving from a free service to a paid one may make it even more difficult to establish market presence. As a result, Pav*r’s market score is quite low. 

At this time, there is one core member of the Pav*r team — Jessica Bledsoe, the firm’s co-founder and its CEO. For seven years, Bledsoe worked as the CEO of RCN Technologies. RCN is a cloud-based tech firm that engineered automated systems aimed at making businesses more profitable. Bledsoe does not provide any other work experience. The only other co-founder and executive of the business listed is Adam Bledsoe. He currently works as Pav*r’s Chief Experience Officer. No credentials could be discovered when trying to examine his past with the exception of the fact that from 2012 through today, he has served as the owner and Computer Systems Engineer for RCN Technologies. Overall, her experience as a CEO of a technical firm and his as an engineer make the pair a solid, though small, management team.  A lot is still lacking in terms of skill sets, but for the stage the firm is in, we have rated the team as being slightly above average in our system.

In its filings, Pav*r lists bulk offerings like Salesforce and Hubspot as its primary competitors. These service providers offer a wide variety of features that users could want. Other solo-offerings like Calendarist and Time Tackle exist. However, they are limited in that they do not offer the direct Google Calendar integration that Pav*r does. This is clearly a point of differentiation. In regards to the bulk players like Salesforce and Hubspot, the difference worth noting is that Pav*r is positioning itself in the individual and small business niche. The bulk offerings of their competitors are features that smaller end users might not be ready for or interested in. Because of that state of its competitors today, Pav*r warrants a slightly above average rating when it comes to differentiation. However, the ability for a competitor to replicate Pav*r’s system prevents the company from being more strongly differentiated at this time. 

Since launching in May of this year, Pav*r has experienced some nice growth. Setting itself up on the G Suite Marketplace, management set the goal of reaching 200 initial users. Within 90 days, they had over 1,000 split between no fewer than 20 countries. Today, that figure is around 4,000. At the time, the firm was not charging for the service, but their intention is to change that. Initially, users will have access to the service under a 14-day free trial. After that, they can subscribe using monthly or annual plans priced at $5 per month. Team pricing will start at $4 per user each month, with a 20% discount applying to teams of 5 or more. 

Given how early stage Pav*r is, the company generated nothing in the way of sales last year. They did, however, incur a net loss of $5,404. This year, revenue still stands at $0, but monthly costs are now up to around $2,370. Because of its lack of financial performance, Pav*r’s performance score is its lowest across all five metrics.

At this time, there are a lot of reasons to be bearish on Pav*r. The company has yet to generate revenue, and it’s about to challenge its entire user base who signed up for a free app with a charge moving forward. The risk of alienation here is significant. Another issue is competition. Yes, Pav*r is different from its peers, but not radically so. Smaller players could come to integrate like they have done, and larger players could always be a threat. The latter sentiment is especially true as Pav*r goes on to expand its offerings. The more it builds new features, the more it could come to look like those larger rivals and the less differentiated its offerings become. 

Though there are a number of bearish considerations, there are some bullish ones as well. The product has at least some traction. Its valuation is quite cheap and probably in line with what you would anticipate for a firm at its stage. Its CEO, while not having a great deal of experience, does have 7 years serving at an executive level in a space that is relevant. Pav*r’s product does appear useful to users, and the market potential is far from being insignificant. It’s not difficult to imagine the firm generating some upside if it can successfully launch its monetized version.

In all, Pav*r is an interesting business. But at the end of the day it’s nothing groundbreaking. Management has succeeded in creating a nice feature for users, but as it stands today there are a lot of concerns to contend with. The path to revenue is questionable. And the field looks to be filled with players who are either only marginally different or that are so large that it could pose problems for the company. Because of all the issues facing this concept — and despite its attractive valuation cap and investment terms — Pav*r is a Neutral Deal. 

For questions regarding the KingsCrowd staff pick or ratings for this company, please reach out to [email protected]. 

Analysis written by Daniel Jones.