Village Juice Co. is raising a Crowd SAFE at a $10 million valuation with 10% discount. This valuation represents a reasonable revenue multiple from Village Juice’s current annual revenue, which hit nearly $3 million in 2019. However, Village Juice hasn’t reported 2020 financials and doesn’t give detail about 2020 financial performance during the COVID-19 pandemic. Due to this uncertainty, Village Juice Co.’s price rating is medium-low.

Fast casual restaurants — generally defined as establishments that offer takeaway ordering with higher-quality food than traditional fast food — represent a growing segment of the restaurant market. Globally, the fast casual restaurant market was sized at $125.6 billion in 2019, with projected growth to $209.1 billion by 2027 — a 10.6% CAGR. Sweetgrean, the brand perhaps most emblematic of the rise of healthy fast casual, has grown explosively since its founding in 2007. The company is now worth $1.6 billion, the only restaurant unicorn as of 2019. 

The fast casual market is booming, but that means there is a great deal of competition in the space. Every restaurant entrepreneur is aiming to be the next Sweetgreen. Of course, COVID has thrown a wrench in the restaurant industry at large. It’s still too soon to tell whether increased appetite for takeout ordering and declining storefront rent will overcome the hit that restaurants took when people stopped eating out for lunch. Thus, Village Juice Co.’s market rating is just above middle-of-the-road. The space has many tailwinds, but the company faces competition and volatility.

Village Juice Co. was founded by a husband-and-wife team, later joined by a close friend. Lonnie Atkinson grew interested in healthy diets in the last decade, citing her own health struggles and her mother’s battle with cancer as motivators to learn more about nutritious foods. In the early days of Village Juice Co., Lonnie was selling juice at farmer’s markets and food trucks, proving the concept. Her background in creative direction from the Savannah College of Art and Design prepared her to form the foundation of the Village Juice brand. 

As the company grew, Lonnie’s husband Nathan left his practice as an employment and environmental attorney to lead Village Juice as CEO. The Atkinsons were joined by CP Harris, a college friend of Nathan’s who transitioned from his career as a real estate developer into the role of CFO for Village Juice. 

The Village Juice Co. team includes a blend of real estate, legal, and creative experience. However, none of the three co-founders have a strong background in business or entrepreneurship, particularly within the restaurant industry. Therefore, Village Juice’s team score is below average. 

Village Juice’s biggest risk is its lack of differentiation among similar healthy fast casual concepts. The company has a strong brand infused throughout its restaurant locations and has generated a loyal customer base. However, Village Juice ultimately looks similar to many other millennial-focused healthy restaurants nationwide. 

The company would likely argue that its biggest differentiator is its partnership with Aramark for the purpose of placing franchise locations near college campuses nationwide. Village Juice seems to focus on college-educated, higher-income, Gen Z women as its target demographic. The ability to franchise through Aramark to reach those customers directly on their campuses is undoubtedly a unique opportunity among startup restaurant chains. However, this distinction alone is not enough to set the company apart from other healthy fast casual competitors. Village Juice’s differentiators score is its lowest across all five metrics. 

Village Juice Co. experienced impressive year-over-year growth between 2015 and 2019. After just one year in business, Village Juice had already generated $600,000 in revenue in 2015 and steadily grew to almost $3 million in revenue in 2019. Moreover, the company made significant strides toward profitability between 2018 and 2019. In 2018, Village Juice posted a negative net income of $634,000, down to just a $26,000 loss in 2019 with a significant growth in revenue. 

This growth is strong and encouraging. However, investors should note that Village Juice has not shared 2020 financials and gives little concrete detail about how 2020’s trials impacted the business. Village Juice still states that it projects hitting $14 million in revenue by 2024, but it’s unclear whether revenues still grew in 2020 or if the company took a step back. 

Nonetheless, all available financial data signals a strong and near-profitable business that is well-positioned to continue growing efficiently thanks to nationwide franchise deals. Therefore, Village Juice Co.’s performance rating is its highest by far.

The fast casual restaurant industry is growing rapidly, with health-focused concepts representing a growing sub-segment of that market. However, the perceived limitless potential of this industry means that there are competitors at every turn making very similar drinks and food to those sold by Village Juice Co. 

The company aims to win out over competitors by placing numerous Village Juice Co. franchises on college campuses nationwide. However, this is a strange and volatile moment in college education. Many schools haven’t had students on campus for the past year, and there are serious questions about the long-term model of expensive, on-campus education after the COVID-19 pandemic. Given the stiff competition of this space and Village Juice’s lack of brand and product differentiation, the company will have to execute flawlessly to win a place among top fast casual brands. Village Juice’s franchise model is largely unproven at this point, and future plans for campuses might face unforeseen challenges. Therefore, there is risk that Village Juice remains limited to a few profitable locations and struggles to grow into a powerhouse restaurant chain. 

Village Juice Co. has undoubtedly capitalized on a rising interest in healthy fast-casual options. Almost $3 million in revenue in 2019 from just a handful of restaurant locations is a significant achievement — one that clearly won attention from Aramark, one of the country’s largest restaurant corporations. Village Juice Co.’s partnership with Aramark will make the path toward nationwide franchising significantly smoother, with lucrative franchise fees and monthly recurring revenue pouring into the bank. 

The attractiveness of this franchise model combined with Village Juice’s existing state of near-profitability signal significant financial potential for Village Juice. If the company is able to operate efficiently, maintain its focus on serving a specific target demographic with well-branded and consistent locations, and occupy a unique college niche among fast casual chains, it just might become a major player in the healthy food space.

Village Juice Co. is a healthy fast casual restaurant chain that boasts a unique partnership with Aramark. This partnership will allow the company to open franchise locations at college campuses and other trendy locations nationwide. If Village Juice can leverage its franchisement to continue its impressive year-over-year revenue growth from 2015-2019, it may grow to rival the likes of Chop’t and Freshii as a well-known national chain. 

On the other hand, Village Juice Co. faces stiff competition and offers little in the way of differentiation among this wide landscape of health-focused restaurant concepts. Plus, this is not exactly the most promising time to invest in restaurants. The industry is facing high volatility as it continues to suffer the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. Village Juice’s lack of financial data for 2020 might be a sign that the company suffered along with many other restaurant businesses. Therefore, Village Juice Co. has been rated a Neutral Deal.

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