Spinster Sisters is raising a Crowd SAFE at a $5.5 million valuation with 20% discount. That’s a hot deal, especially relative to other young direct-to-consumer (DTC) brands raising money on crowdfunding platforms. Spinster Sisters generated $1.3 million in revenue last year, so a $5.5 million valuation represents a very reasonable 4.2 times revenue multiple. The 20% discount only sweetens the opportunity, heightening the likelihood that investors could reap a return as the business continues to grow (which seems likely, with almost 50% year-over-year growth from 2019 to 2020). All in all, Spinster Sisters’ price rating is its strongest.

The market for natural personal care products is undoubtedly growing with more consumers willing to pay for ingredient labels they understand. However, the market is still relatively small compared to demand for mainstream personal care products. The total US beauty and personal care products market is projected to hit $128.7 billion by 2030, driven in large part by increased e-commerce sales. In contrast, the natural personal care products market in the US was only estimated at $3.4 billion in 2020, a narrow segment of the broader landscape. The CAGR for the global natural personal care products market is expected to be roughly 9.3% over the next seven years. That’s fast-paced growth applied to a small market. 

Of course, there’s also very strong competition in this market, reducing Spinster Sisters’ obtainable market share significantly. At this point, Spinster Sisters is more of a local Colorado brand, marketing primarily through word-of-mouth. That organic business model could struggle to compete with personal care giants spending millions of dollars on paid marketing campaigns for their natural product lines. Spinster Sisters is likely to only own a small slice of a small pie, so the company’s market rating is below average. 

Spinster Sisters was founded by Kelly Perkins, who has been experimenting with clean beauty formulas since the 1990s. Perkins used to work in operations and project management at travel companies but was beginning to sell natural soaps and lotions at farmers markets on nights and weekends. In 2012, she went all-in on Spinster Sisters, slowly growing the brand ever since. 

Perkins appears to be Spinster Sisters’ key team member, but the company’s team also includes Craig Perkins, who holds a PhD in surface chemical reactions. There are also additional sales and operations team members with some experience in consumer packaged goods (CPG). Spinster Sisters is advised by Elliot Begoun, an established natural brand builder and startup coach. 

Kelly Perkins has developed a compelling, personable brand and lends more than two decades of product development experience to her business. However, neither she nor key team members have significant experience building businesses, including all of the finance, sales, marketing, and operations considerations therein. There’s limited entrepreneurial and CPG experience on this team, which drives a relatively low team rating. 

Lack of differentiation is probably Spinster Sisters’ biggest risk. The company benefits from market growth in natural personal care, and consumers are certainly more and more interested in non-toxic skincare products. That trend is a double-edged sword, though, because it has also created an extremely competitive environment within this space. There have been several success stories from Goop and The Honest Company to Drunk Elephant and Oars + Alps. Still, those headlines mask the countless homegrown natural beauty brands trying and failing to gain a foothold in this industry. 

Differentiation between products is limited in this space, and Spinster Sisters’ offerings are no exception. While consumers are definitely interested in products with simple ingredients, they have a wide variety of options within that niche that are largely branded the same and offer no obvious product advantages. Companies like Goop and The Honest Company succeed because of an additional factor, often celebrity status. Unfortunately, Spinster Sisters lacks that factor. The company might struggle to grow beyond its current position due to the competitive nature of this industry. Therefore, its differentiation rating is its lowest. 

In the last two years, Spinster Sisters has been performing well. In 2019, the company generated $883,272 in revenue and almost eked out a profit with only $10,403 in net loss. Sales jumped last year, apparently driven by hand sanitizer popularity during the COVID-19 pandemic. Spinster Sisters made more than $1.3 million in revenue and remained relatively close to profitability with a roughly $191,000 net loss. That’s almost 50% year-over-year growth, impressive for a business marketed primarily through word-of-mouth. Spinster Sisters also seems to be beloved by loyal customers with a 48% repeat purchase rate and an 87 net promoter score. 

These metrics are impressive, but there are a couple of additional factors that prospective investors should consider. First, Spinster Sisters has been in operation since Kelly Perkins went full-time on the business in 2012. It’s been almost a decade, and the company is just reaching $1 million in annual revenue. This doesn’t seem to be a fast-growing business. Second, growth in 2020 was largely due to sales of hand sanitizer. It’s not clear yet whether that trend will persist or whether those customers fulfilled a one-time need that will evaporate as the pandemic resolves.

All in all, Spinster Sisters seems to be growing at a healthy pace and is a capital-efficient business nearing profitability with high gross margins (58% blended gross margin year-to-date for 2021). There are a couple of key caveats for investors to consider, but overall, Spinster Sisters’ performance rating is relatively high.

The biggest source of risk for prospective investors eyeing Spinster Sisters is financial. The company is still generating relatively low revenue and has a long way to go before becoming reliably profitable. It’s also questionable whether 2020’s 50% year-over-year growth can continue after hand sanitizer demand normalizes post-pandemic. Beyond finances, prospective investors should note that Spinster Sisters hasn’t raised very much money thus far and will likely need to raise much more to create a high-growth marketing engine. The Spinster Sisters team is also inexperienced in business building, which poses another key risk.

Natural beauty and personal care is an extremely competitive industry, and there’s no clear indication that Spinster Sisters has what it takes to outrun hundreds of very similar brands. In fact, there are some negative indicators. Spinster Sisters has been in business for almost 10 years and is only now reaching more than $1 million in annual revenue. The biggest success stories in natural personal care reached maturity much more quickly. Spending more on marketing seems to be critical for Spinster Sisters’ success, but the company hasn’t raised much capital to fund that engine. There’s also a strong risk that pouring dollars into paid acquisition could hamper the company’s progress toward profitability. 

With a relatively inexperienced team and slow growth curve, Spinster Sisters doesn’t seem to be on the path toward becoming a household name in natural personal care. While the business might continue to grow slowly, selling great products to loyal customers and developing a strong name in Colorado, this might not be a business that will deliver outsized returns to investors. 

All-natural personal care products are increasingly popular. The intensity of interest in this space causes significant competition, but the market is growing each year. Some estimates peg clean beauty’s CAGR at more than 12%, meaning that millions more consumers each year are browsing for all-natural products in the personal care aisle. If Spinster Sisters can continue on a positive growth trajectory, inking deals with new retail partners and (cautiously) spending more on marketing, it’s certainly possible that the company could eke out a stake in this growing market.

Plus, other natural skincare brands have achieved lucrative exits in recent years. From Drunk Elephant to Oars + Alps, it’s clear that major players like Johnson & Johnson and Unilever are actively eyeing upstart brands to add to their portfolios. Some of these companies have been acquired with relatively low revenues, making it possible for Spinster Sisters to be a candidate for purchase within the next few years. The path to acquisition is long and certainly not guaranteed, but there’s definitely a chance that investors could reap returns if the company continues to grow steadily.

Spinster Sisters is an all-natural skincare brand selling non-toxic soaps, lotions, hand sanitizers, and more to online and retail customers. The company generated more than $1.3 million in revenue last year with strong gross margins, 50% year-over-year growth, and a low net loss. That’s a great sign for investors, who can also enjoy a very reasonable revenue multiple with this Crowd SAFE offering valued at $5.5 million. At this price, there’s a chance that investors reap returns if Spinster Sisters is acquired within the next several years. 

On the other hand, acquisition is far from guaranteed in an industry this crowded and competitive. Spinster Sisters products seem to be beloved by customers, but there’s no clear reason why they’re different from the countless other all-natural soaps and lotions on the market. Plus, Spinster Sisters has been in business for almost a decade. While recent performance results are positive, the company’s overall history is characterized by slow growth. Therefore, Spinster Sisters has been rated a Neutral Deal. 

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